By T. Tsiros
[email protected]
The latest “unofficial deadline” in concluding the now more than year-old delayed second review of the Greek program is May 22, with yet another round of negotiations between Athens and institutional creditors commencing on Tuesday.
Negotiations are, in fact, intertwined with demands (by the IMF and the Greek government) for accompanying medium-term debt relief measures; European creditors’ insistence on high annual primary budget surplus targets after 2018 (when the current bailout ends in August of that year), as well as the International Monetary Fund’s pending decision on whether or not to participate in the Greek program as a lender.
Specifying annual fiscal targets could extend up until 2023, according to reports.
A veritable frenzy of developments must now materialize in order for the second review to be concluded by late May, namely: a staff-level agreement to be presented at the May 22 Eurogroup meeting; the tabling of newly agreed to austerity measures, and whatever countervailing measures, in Greece’s Parliament, followed by ratification; the signing of at least six new agreements with creditors; the convening of the meeting of Eurozone finance ministers to provide the “green light” for the latest review, along with meetings by the ECB’s executive board, the European Stability Mechanism’s (ESM) board of directors and the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) board of governors.
One significant date on the calendar comes on Friday, when Greece’s now independent statistical service (EL.STAT) will release figures for the primary budget surplus recorded in 2016, with initial reports pointing to 3.5 percent of GDP (for that year), significantly higher from the target of 0.5 percent.
