The Greek economy is faced with another year of both great challenges and opportunities. More specifically, three large issues will determine the performance of the Greek economy in 2025, particularly in the first half of the new year.
Among the measures to be implemented are the expansion of the electronic transactions and the further digitization of the Tax Office audits, the application of the 6th request for the disbursement of funds totaling 5 billion euros from the Recovery Fund, which requires the implementation of significant reforms, while new upgrades are expected from credit rating agencies as of March.
Tax Evasion
According to official data, revenues from the fight against tax evasion are expected to exceed 2 billion euros this year.
Thus, the goal of 2.5 billion euros annual revenues from tax evasion is considered achievable in 2025, expanding, in this case, the fiscal margins for new tax cuts focused on the middle class and social policies, as announced by the government.
The final data on the course of revenues and expenditures in 2024 are expected to be announced late April, on the basis of which the primary surplus of this year’s budget will be formed.
Based on current estimates, primary surplus is expected above the initial forecast of 2.5% of GDP and close to 3%.
Credit Ratings
In early March, the rating agencies are expected to make announcements on the Greek economy, while 2024 will end with SCOPE’s upgrade of the country’s credit rating to investment grade.
The new cycle of credit ratings will be opened on March 7 by the Canadian agency DBRS, which had upgraded the outlook for the economy from “stable” to “positive” in September.
It will be followed, a week later, on March 14, by Moody’s, which upgraded the outlook for the Greek economy from “stable” to “positive” in September.
On April 18, it will be Standard & Poor’s turn to announce its own rating. The Ministry of Finance estimates that 2025 will be a year of new upgrades, due to the continued strong growth performance of the economy, the smooth absorption of the Recovery Fund resources and the reforms that this entails, as well as the high primary surpluses recorded by the budget.
Recovery Fund
By the beginning of next summer, Greece is expected to submit the new request for the 6th tranche of the Recovery Fund.
This concerns an amount of 5 billion euros, while in total, together with the 7th tranche scheduled for the autumn, Greece is expected to receive the amount of 9.8 billion euros.
Each tranche is accompanied by specific milestones that the country must fulfill, including important reforms. For this reason, their implementation is a key priority for the economic staff for 2025.
