The IMF “sees” signs of resilience of the Greek economy despite the risks posed by geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East for Greece and the global economy.
In its report on the Global Economic Prospects, the Fund maintains its positive estimates on Greece’s growth rates for this year and next year and indeed at levels higher than the European average. Unemployment, according to the Fund’s estimates, will move downwards, however, remaining slightly above 10% in 2025. The goal for inflation at the level of 2%, the Fund estimates, will be reached in 2025, both for Greece and for the eurozone.
According to the IMF, in 2024 the Greek economy will grow at a rate more than double that of the Eurozone average, at 2.3%. As for 2025, the Fund estimates that the Greek economy will grow at a lower rate than in 2024, at 2%, while in 2029 it will grow at 1.3%.
The IMF has not included in its forecasts the new data for the course of the GDP in 2023 when the growth rate of the Greek economy reached 2.3% against an initial estimate for a GDP increase of 2%. The specific forecasts are very close to the estimates of the Ministry of National Economy and Finance as based on the draft budget of 2025 the Greek economy is estimated to grow at a rate of 2.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.
In the Eurozone, according to the new estimates of the IMF, the growth rate this year will be around 0.8%-1.2% in 2025. It is worth noting that especially for this year, the growth rate of the Greek economy will be the sixth highest in the eurozone after Malta (5%), Croatia (3.4%), Cyprus (3.3%), Lithuania (2.4%) and Spain (2.9%).
Inflation in Greece, based on the estimates of the Fund, will stand at 2.9% in 2024, higher than the average of the Eurozone which will reach 2.4%. Next year, it is estimated that it will move at approximately the same levels as the eurozone, i.e. at 2.1% compared to 2% in the eurozone.
As far as unemployment in Greece is concerned, according to the IMF, it will continue to decrease in the coming years, remaining however close to 10%. More specifically, unemployment will decrease to 10.5% this year and to 10.1% in 2025.
