Shipping analysts see the first bad omens for the bulk carrier freight market, amid a correction in freight rates from the recent highs.
The sector experienced a very strong first quarter, a seasonally negative period for freight, and a fairly satisfactory second quarter. The climate has changed, however, and the average daily revenue of large capesize bulkers in the spot market has recently fallen to a low of almost four months.
“A degree of weakness in capes is expected in the third quarter due to the importance of bauxite exports from Guinea, which are seasonally lower this time due to the rains,” SSY head of research Roar Adland pointed out to “Naftemporiki.”
BIMCO estimates that demand will grow between 4.5%-5.5% this year, before falling by 1%-2% in 2025. “Fares are expected to remain strong through 2024, but demand could limit amid high inventories among importers,” he said.
Focusing on the second half of this year, Adland emphasized to “Naftemporiki” that demand growth is expected to be less robust year-on-year due to high performance at the end of 2023 and a lack of momentum.
At the same time, BIMCO analysts see significant risks in China. “Weaker-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter reflects weak domestic demand. If China misses the target of 5% GDP growth in 2024, the outlook for the market will be worse than our estimates,” they noted.
