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Price spike slows down consumption and GDP

EUROKINISSI-ΓΙΑΝΝΗΣ ΠΑΝΑΓΟΠΟΥΛΟΣ

Total revenue of wholesale and retail trade companies stood at 11.2 billion euros in May 2024, registering a marginal drop of 0.4% compared to May 2023 when they reached 11.252 billion euros

A decrease – even marginal – in the revenues of Greece’s large commercial enterprises was recorded by the Hellenic Statistical Authority in May, triggering concerns as to whether high prices are beginning to affect the overall course of consumption, as well as the course of the GDP.

Total revenue of wholesale and retail trade companies – which also includes the activity from the repair of vehicles and motorcycles – stood at 11.2 billion euros in May 2024, registering a marginal drop of 0.4% compared to May 2023 when they reached 11.252 billion euros.

The figures of the Hellenic Statistical Authority are collected from the VAT returns and they depict in great detail the overall course of the turnover, at least the “visible” one.

The turnover of the trade sector is particularly interesting, as it gives a first insight into the course of consumption.

One would expect that the increased prices prevailing this year compared to last year would also lead to an increase in turnover which is clearly affected by the level of prices. However, this was not the case in May and it remains to be seen whether it will be followed by lower private consumption.

The “core”

Consumption, even if the course of investments and exports have attracted the interest lately, still constitutes the “core” of economic activity in Greece, with its contribution to the GDP approaching 70%, without taking into account the importance – also in double digits – of public consumption.

We will have a clear picture of the course of private consumption (but also generally of the course of GDP in the second quarter) at the beginning of September.