The full Medium-term fiscal-structural plan covering the years 2025-2028 will be submitted, based on the new fiscal rules, in September 2024.
According to the forecasts included in the programme, the Greek economy will continue its convergence path, achieving in the next period (as has already happened in the previous three years) a higher growth rate compared to the EU average and at the same time a faster de-escalation of inflation compared to the eurozone average.
At the same time, according to the National Economy and Finance Ministry, the fiscal balance is guaranteed as well as the continuation of debt reduction and the exercise of social policy with the interventions in salaries, pensions and taxes that have already been announced for the period 2024-2025 have begun to be implemented and lead to a greater than expected increase in citizens’ income.
Primary surpluses of 2.1% in 2024 and 2025
The Stability Programme foresees a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP in the years 2024 and 2025. On this basis, a significant de-escalation of the debt-to-GDP ratio is recorded from 172.7% in 2022 and 161.9% in 2023, to 152.7% in 2024 and 146.3% in 2025, giving a positive signal to markets and rating agencies.
The projected reduction of Greek public debt in the coming years is a continuation of a record fall in the period 2021-2023, when the ratio of public debt to GDP fell by 45 percentage points (from 207% of GDP in 2020 to 161.9% in 2023). This reduction is by far the fastest reduction of public debt ever recorded in Europe.
Higher growth rates compared to the eurozone
The Greek economy is expected to grow by 5% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025 taking into account international developments.
The revision to a more conservative target compared to the budget (from 2.9% to 2.5%) is based on the slowdown in the European economy and the ECB’s prolonged restrictive monetary policy, which appears to be affecting investment more adversely than expected at the European level.
