Piraeus Bank is expected to meet its goal for the participation of at least 30-35 funds – of high quality – in the bank’s share capital, as analysts consider the goal feasible and even conservative.
Meanwhile, the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) has not decided yet whether to sell all or part of its share in the bank. Pension funds and long-term investors seem to be interested in becoming shareholders of the bank or increasing their participation in it.
The approval of the bank’s prospectus by the Capital Market Commission is expected on March 1, when all the details will be published.
Transfer rate scenarios
On the same day, the decision will be made on the percentage that will pass into new hands. Until then, it seems that all scenarios are open. The first scenario wants the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund to keep a percentage of the bank in its portfolio and therefore in this case the percentage offered will not exceed 20%. Why should this be done? Because analysts believe that the share price will rise further and the Fund wants to benefit from the rise.
The second scenario wants the Fund to sell the full percentage (27%) it owns in the bank. Why would this happen? Because it makes no particular sense for the Fund to prevent the complete privatization of a bank for a small percentage. Also because the consultants are pushing in this direction, not ignoring the fact that the bigger the issue the more their commissions will be.
Contacts
The bank has been talking, and will continue to do so throughout this week, with at least 90 funds that are potentially interested in entering its equity capital.
More specifically, in London and New York, the bank’s staff had meetings throughout the previous period with analysts and investors, explaining the bank’s progress so far, but mainly the three-year business plan for the period 2024-2026.
What analysts see
Net profit is expected to reach one billion euros in each fiscal year for the period 2024-2026. Looking ahead, the market now estimates that Piraeus Bank expects to achieve an increase in the distribution ratio of 25%-50% in 2024-2026 (above the 20%-25% distribution ratio predicted by the market).
Analysts are gradually differentiating themselves in terms of the bank’s target prices, while this is also the reason why a decision has not yet been made on what percentage will be made available to the market from the 27% held by the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund.
Jefferies and AXIA raised their target price for the stock to 5.20 euros and 5 euros, respectively. Expressing its positive outlook for the bank, Euroxx maintained the target price of 5.3 euros (overweight). Outperform is NBG’s recommendation along with a target price at 4.5 euros, while JPMorgan also gave an overweight recommendation and target price at 5 euros.
