The government sets as a goal the return of the GDP to the level of 2009 so that the end of the memorandum period is reflected in yet another key indicator. However, the “dependence” on consumption still remains.
In nominal terms, GDP is forecast to reach 235.147 billion euros in 2024 from 224 billion euros in 2023 and 208.03 billion euros in 2022. This presupposes that the second half will close with real growth of more than 2.3% in order to end this year at the predicted levels and that in 2024 Greece will show one of the highest rates of growth rates in Europe (3%).
The aim for next year’s growth to come primarily from investments and exports is also reflected in the percentage changes that have been incorporated into the draft budget. While an increase of 1.6% in real terms is predicted for private consumption and a decrease of 1.3% for public consumption (due to the withdrawal of support measures mainly to deal with the energy crisis), a provision is included for an increase in gross fixed capital by 12.1% (a higher percentage than in 2022) but also for an increase in exports of products and services by 6.3%, i.e. three times the rate compared to the estimate for an increase of 2.7% in 2023. As regards imports, an increase of 4.5% is predicted for 2024 from 2.2% in 2023, which means that a further reduction of the current account deficit is also predicted.
The famous “change of the production model”, i.e. the reduction of the dependence of the Greek economy on consumption with a corresponding substitution of the participation in the GDP by exports and -mainly- investments, will however be a long and slow process as can be seen from the estimates which incorporates the finance staff into the draft budget.
