Concerns have been raised over how the high cost of money, the pressure on the European economies and the pre-election period will affect economic activity in the second quarter of the year.
Moreover, there are indications of a slowdown in business turnover in April along with continued price increases, especially in food. It remains to be seen to what extent they have affected private consumption, which still represents a very high percentage of GDP, over 70%. Another cause for concern is the continued increase in the cost of money and its impact on investments.
On top of that, the comparison with the same period last year is also an issue. A quarterly growth rate of 7.3% (from 7.8% in the first quarter of 2022) was recorded – based on the updated data of ELSTAT – resulting in a growth of 2% while in the second quarter the GDP should reach 49 billion euros at least, higher even than the first quarter. Another reason has to do with the change in inventories. Its contribution to the GDP was rather significant in 2022. A slowdown was already recorded in the first quarter, leading to a 2.1% growth rate in January-March. This is likely to be repeated in the second
quarter.
