The National Bank of Greece (NBG) in a report released on Tuesday sees the Greek economy growing 2.5% in the second quarter and 3.0% or even higher in the second half of the year.
In particular, NBG pointed out that this performance is expected to be supported by the more favorable basis of comparison with the second and especially with the third quarter of 2022, during which the pressures from energy costs had peaked along with the weakening of the economic climate. At the same time, investment spending is estimated to be strengthened amid increasing support from the implementation of investment plans under the National Recovery and Resilience Facility.
According to the NBG analysts, the main reasons of uncertainty, regarding the above basic scenario, are related to a possible weakening of the economic climate and exports – in the event that the economic conditions in the eurozone deteriorate significantly, due to the delayed effects of a more restrictive monetary policy – as well as in the event of a re-emergence of energy uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions.
Clear signs of acceleration in economic activity
However, as pointed out in the analysis, economic activity, according to the available indicators for the second quarter of 2023, is expected to accelerate both on a quarterly and annual basis. In particular, the most notable trends are the following:
The economic sentiment index rose to 108.4 in April-May from 106.8 in the first quarter of 2023.
Inflationary pressures eased in the second quarter, with the annual change in the consumer price index (CPI) at 2.9% in April-May from 5.9% in the first quarter, easing pressures on real disposable income.
Employment growth rose to 1.6% year-on-year in April, up from 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter.
